From papyrus to policy

Can studying the past provide hope or guidance for the future?

Emerging evidence suggests that an Alaskan volcano that erupted around 43 B.C. could have caused drought, famine, and political and social unrest 6,000 miles away in Egypt during the reign of Cleopatra VII. Researchers believe examining this possible connection and its aftermath could help modern humans adapt to drastic climatic upheavals.

Supported by a grant from Yale Planetary Solutions, a team led by Professor Joseph Manning will host a lecture and workshop in October to examine how significant historic volcanic eruptions disrupted river dynamics and their cascading effects on societies living near major rivers in North Africa and East Asia.

The team hopes to extract lessons from historical patterns — including migration, crop rotation, famine, and political unrest — to widen the discussion and possibly offer suggestions for combating today’s climate challenges through a historic lens that informs sustainable governance and water management.

Workshop and public lecture

The workshop, “Resilient Rivers: Historical Lessons for Climate Adaptation and Sustainable Governance,” will bring together an interdisciplinary group of national and international historians, economists, scientists, hydrologic engineers, and statisticians.

Participants will examine how volcanic eruptions affected regional climate dynamics and explore the resulting social and political effects on nearby populations and their adaptation strategies. The aim is to identify lessons and best practices from these ancient civilizations that can help contemporary societies adjust to climatic shocks.

“We hope to review and expand upon the Yale Nile Initiative’s achievements and bring together experts to identify and pursue new research opportunities and funding,” said Manning, the William K. and Marilyn Milton Simpson Professor of Classics and of History.

The original findings from the Yale Nile Initiative were derived from papyrus documents and inscriptions containing astronomical, weather, and flood records as well as priestly decrees and land sales. This information along with environmental data from ice core records and global climate models were analyzed together with modern geospatial approaches (such as utilizing GPS coordinates and satellite images).

The analysis relied on matching social and environmental records from precise locations — of historical events in the Mediterranean, of regional drought extents, and of distant volcanic eruptions. The team at the Yale Center for Geospatial Solutions (YCGS) created maps from this data, currently on display in the Peabody Museum, and is now coordinating the upcoming event.

YCGS partnership and the Yale Nile Initiative

Manning tapped Jennifer Marlon, Ph.D., executive director of the YCGS, in 2018 to be a co-principal investigator of the Yale Nile Initiative. At that time, she was a senior research scientist and lecturer at the Yale School of the Environment and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Marlon’s research examines risk and decision making around climate shifts and extreme weather and translates complex environmental data.

As head of YCGS, Marlon and her team offer advanced geospatial research support for faculty and students across campus with training programs and research partnerships. Its support includes data collection and analysis, modeling and simulations, and mapping using satellite imagery, GPS devices, aerial photos, and census records.

For the Resilient Rivers workshop, which will build on the findings of the Yale Nile Initiative, Marlon and her staff will handle the budget, travel coordination, venue selection, and scheduling. Marlon is also inviting scholars from across the globe to attend the event, which will feature a public lecture.

“We want to invite people who have modern knowledge and expertise in hydrology, economics, and politics to expand our study beyond the Nile to the Tigris-Euphrates and Indus River Basins,” said Marlon. “Our YCGS team is going to produce maps that show the historical areas of drought around the Nile’s floodplain and create other visualizations to engage the public in this conversation.”

Ancient adaptations and modern science

By bridging the gap between ancient adaptations and modern scientific capabilities, the Resilient Rivers project demonstrates that looking to the past might illuminate the path forward to a better understanding of some of today’s environmental challenges.

“From this workshop, the team wants to understand how ancient civilizations responded to climate shocks,” said Marlon. “For instance, how did these communities adapt when water sources failed or shifted? Did they migrate or plant different crops? Or was there regional conflict and widespread famine?”

The team plans to create an interactive tool that anyone can use to explore the findings of the grant and workshop. “We also want to publish our results through a peer-reviewed white paper or book that gives policymakers and community leaders practical steps they can take,” said Manning. “Most importantly, we want to keep building on this work by continuing research that bridges history and science.”